The ascending height of the hottest methanol is li

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The upward height of methanol is limited

the supply and demand pattern has not improved

in the night trading on May 17, the main 1909 contract of methanol futures rose 2.98%. Technically, since the beginning of this year, methanol futures has built a big w bottom. Last Friday, the price successfully stood at the pressure level of 2488 yuan/ton, and the trend became stronger

multiple positive factors boosted the early price

on Friday, the rise in methanol prices was boosted by multiple factors

first, the spot price in the early stage continued to decline, and the operation of methanol production enterprises was poor. At present, therefore, we cannot be too excited. The average profit of Northwest coal to methanol production enterprises is 330 yuan/ton, far lower than 1300 yuan/ton in the same period last year; Southwest gas to methanol production enterprises have an average loss of 350 yuan/ton, while the profit in the same period last year was 600-800 yuan/ton

second, recently, the inventory of methanol production enterprises has declined. As of May 15, the inventory of some representative methanol enterprises in the inland region was about 383900 tons, down 29900 tons from May 8, a decrease of 7.23%

under the combined effect of poor operating conditions and inventory decline, methanol production enterprises in Northwest China are enthusiastic about price support

third, due to the reduction of methanol shipping schedule in May, the price of imported methanol rebounded slightly. As of May 17, the RMB price of imported methanol increased by 84 yuan/ton, or 3.7%, compared with April 30. The rising price of imported methanol supports the domestic market price

Fourthly, there are many safety accidents in domestic chemical enterprises this year, and coking methanol production units in Shanxi and Shandong have been affected

the aftermarket does not have the momentum to continue to rise

although the above factors support the methanol price, these factors have only short-term effects and are difficult to support the continuous rise of methanol price

first, from mid May to early June, a large number of methanol plants overhauled in the early stage will resume production, and the methanol supply is bound to be large, which will have a strong suppressive effect on the price of methanol

second, the market has long reflected the expectation of the production of two MTO units in Inner Mongolia Jiutai and Nanjing Zhicheng, but the production of these two units has been delayed repeatedly, and its beneficial effect on the market has been limited

third, there is no significant increase in the demand for methanol. At present, the traditional downstream formaldehyde has been affected by environmental protection and acetic acid has been impacted by foreign markets, which have fallen into a state of loss, and it is difficult to bear the high price of methanol

fourth, at present, the main 1909 contract premium of methanol futures in East China is 150 yuan/ton. Considering the recent continuous rise in the number of registered warehouse receipts of methanol, the current term cash spread relationship has been ready for arbitrage, which will restrict the price of methanol futures

trade issues become the biggest uncertainty

the recent trend of bulk commodities is greatly affected by external factors. In May, the United States terminated the exemption of eight countries from importing crude oil from Iran, and market rumors said that the scope of U.S. sanctions against Iran will be expanded from crude oil to chemicals. Iran is the largest methanol import source in China. Recently, its 1.65 million ton/year marjarn plant and 2.3 million ton/year keveh Plant Jinan assay are national high-tech enterprises, and increasing the load is the focus of market attention. If the U.S. sanctions affect the domestic import of methanol from Iran or the situation between the United States and Iran is tight. 6. The warranty commitment time given by the seller causes market concern, then the price of methanol will rise sharply. Therefore, the US Iran issue is an uncertain factor in the operation of methanol prices

aftermarket forecast

methanol production enterprises began to hold up prices in the environment of low profits and low inventory, which led to the rise of futures prices. However, considering that the problem of oversupply in the market has not changed at present, it is difficult for methanol prices to continue to rise. Based on the above judgment, the recent rise should be treated as a rebound, and the operation is mainly bargain hunting, which is not suitable to catch up

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